The visit of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Ankara last week hid a pleasant surprise for Turkish diplomacy. It was announced that the US President Barack Obama would visit Turkey in the framework of his first visit to Europe next month. After visiting London to attend the G-20 Summit and Prague to participate in the NATO Summit, Obama would visit Ankara. Following a protracted period of deterioration in US-Turkey relations, it seemed that a new opportunity emerged. The agenda of the meetings will be anything but light and easy. Hard bargaining is to be expected. The situation in Iraq, the Iran crisis, the Palestinian question, is only some of the very hard topics both delegations will be called upon to tackle.
Iraq will definitely score high in the agenda. US policies in Iraq have been the key reason for the cooling of bilateral relations. Following Obama’s pledge to withdraw US troops from Iraq, it is imperative to seek a consensus with Iraq’s neighbours about the post-US occupation era. It is unlikely that a federal Iraq will be able to survive without the active support of its neighbours, or at least some of them. Turkey’s views on the Iraq question have been heavily influenced by its Kurdish dimension. The final status of the Kurdish provinces in Northern Iraq as well as the fate of the bases of the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) will heavily draw upon the Turkish position. It is interesting to see how the new US administration will try to appease Turkey without alienating its hitherto strongest and most credible allies in Iraq, the Iraqi Kurds.
Iran will be another issue. US efforts to prevent the rise of Iran as a nuclear power have been circumscribed by the apparent intractable cost of a military intervention, as well as the involvement of Iran in almost all open conflicts in the Middle East against US interests, be it in Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria or Palestine. The prospect of Iran developing nuclear weapons is alarming not only the US administration but also the whole Middle East. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt or Turkey would feel directly threatened by a nuclear Iran and could also feel tempted to seek their own nuclear armament, which could have disastrous consequences for global stability. The United States needs again the strong support of Iran’s neighbours in its attempt to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions and probably pre-empt their reactions in case Iran indeed develops nuclear weapons.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict will also be on the table. The Erdogan administration spent plenty of political capital to establish Turkey’s regional role. Turkey was no more uninterested in what was happening in the Middle East; it developed a peace and conflict resolution agenda. The disclosure that Turkey was brokering secret Israeli-Syrian negotiations last year for a settlement in the Golan Heights provided ample proof for this. On the other hand, the close links of the AKP government with the Hamas leadership in Gaza caused repeated frustration in Tel Aviv and Washington. This came to its peak last month when Erdogan lashed out against the Israeli President Shimon Peres in the World Economic Forum. This was a move which hurt Turkey’s broker role in the region but made Erdogan very popular in the Arab Middle East. The close links of the AKP government with Syria and Hamas make it all the more interesting interlocutor for Obama, especially at a time he is pondering ways to break the existing deadlock and engage Syria and possibly Hamas.
Nonetheless, the most important reason for the expedited visit of President Obama to Turkey is not linked to a regional problem. Obama wants to use Turkey as the stage to address the Islamic world. Eight years of GW Bush administration have caused enormous damage to the relations between the West and the Islamic world. US policies in the Middle East, the Palestinian question, the Iraq war, the Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo prison debacles have tarnished the image of the United States among world’s Muslims. Obama wants to clean the US slate and make a new beginning. A symbolic visit to a Muslim country and address to the Islamic world was long discussed among Obama’s foreign policy advisors. Turkey was chosen for this, not only because of its position between the West and the Islamic world, but mainly because of the identity of its ruling party. The AKP could be seen as an example of a party of Islamist political roots, which was able to escape from a strictly Islamist agenda and engage with Western intellectual and political discourses. By adopting Turkey’s European vocation and contributing significantly to the reform process which led to the opening of Turkey’s EU accession negotiations in 2005, the AKP made a big service to Turkey’s democratisation cause and transformed itself into a conservative democratic party. A new term “Muslim democracy” the equivalent of “Christian democracy” in the Islamic world was even suggested for the description of the new party. Under the AKP Turkey joined Spain to form the “Alliance of Civilisations,” an UN-sponsored initiative aiming to bring about conciliation and peace in the relations between the Islam and the West. The transformation of this party provided ample proof that Islam and democracy are not incompatible. Conveying this message to the Islamic world will be one of the main aims of Obama’s visit to Turkey.
There is no doubt that discussions will be difficult, and agreements may not be reached in all issues. Yet the very event of the Obama visit can already be considered as a vindication of Turkey’s ambitious multilevel foreign policy. Through hard and systematic work, Turkey has been able to establish itself in the forefront of world diplomacy. The reaction of the Greek government and press, when the news about Obama’s decision to visit Turkey reached Athens was uneasy. It could become fruitful, if it sparks a long-needed discussion about a revitalisation of Greek foreign policy and a redefinition of its strategic priorities.
(Published on Athens News on 20 March 2009)
Iraq will definitely score high in the agenda. US policies in Iraq have been the key reason for the cooling of bilateral relations. Following Obama’s pledge to withdraw US troops from Iraq, it is imperative to seek a consensus with Iraq’s neighbours about the post-US occupation era. It is unlikely that a federal Iraq will be able to survive without the active support of its neighbours, or at least some of them. Turkey’s views on the Iraq question have been heavily influenced by its Kurdish dimension. The final status of the Kurdish provinces in Northern Iraq as well as the fate of the bases of the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) will heavily draw upon the Turkish position. It is interesting to see how the new US administration will try to appease Turkey without alienating its hitherto strongest and most credible allies in Iraq, the Iraqi Kurds.
Iran will be another issue. US efforts to prevent the rise of Iran as a nuclear power have been circumscribed by the apparent intractable cost of a military intervention, as well as the involvement of Iran in almost all open conflicts in the Middle East against US interests, be it in Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria or Palestine. The prospect of Iran developing nuclear weapons is alarming not only the US administration but also the whole Middle East. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt or Turkey would feel directly threatened by a nuclear Iran and could also feel tempted to seek their own nuclear armament, which could have disastrous consequences for global stability. The United States needs again the strong support of Iran’s neighbours in its attempt to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions and probably pre-empt their reactions in case Iran indeed develops nuclear weapons.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict will also be on the table. The Erdogan administration spent plenty of political capital to establish Turkey’s regional role. Turkey was no more uninterested in what was happening in the Middle East; it developed a peace and conflict resolution agenda. The disclosure that Turkey was brokering secret Israeli-Syrian negotiations last year for a settlement in the Golan Heights provided ample proof for this. On the other hand, the close links of the AKP government with the Hamas leadership in Gaza caused repeated frustration in Tel Aviv and Washington. This came to its peak last month when Erdogan lashed out against the Israeli President Shimon Peres in the World Economic Forum. This was a move which hurt Turkey’s broker role in the region but made Erdogan very popular in the Arab Middle East. The close links of the AKP government with Syria and Hamas make it all the more interesting interlocutor for Obama, especially at a time he is pondering ways to break the existing deadlock and engage Syria and possibly Hamas.
Nonetheless, the most important reason for the expedited visit of President Obama to Turkey is not linked to a regional problem. Obama wants to use Turkey as the stage to address the Islamic world. Eight years of GW Bush administration have caused enormous damage to the relations between the West and the Islamic world. US policies in the Middle East, the Palestinian question, the Iraq war, the Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo prison debacles have tarnished the image of the United States among world’s Muslims. Obama wants to clean the US slate and make a new beginning. A symbolic visit to a Muslim country and address to the Islamic world was long discussed among Obama’s foreign policy advisors. Turkey was chosen for this, not only because of its position between the West and the Islamic world, but mainly because of the identity of its ruling party. The AKP could be seen as an example of a party of Islamist political roots, which was able to escape from a strictly Islamist agenda and engage with Western intellectual and political discourses. By adopting Turkey’s European vocation and contributing significantly to the reform process which led to the opening of Turkey’s EU accession negotiations in 2005, the AKP made a big service to Turkey’s democratisation cause and transformed itself into a conservative democratic party. A new term “Muslim democracy” the equivalent of “Christian democracy” in the Islamic world was even suggested for the description of the new party. Under the AKP Turkey joined Spain to form the “Alliance of Civilisations,” an UN-sponsored initiative aiming to bring about conciliation and peace in the relations between the Islam and the West. The transformation of this party provided ample proof that Islam and democracy are not incompatible. Conveying this message to the Islamic world will be one of the main aims of Obama’s visit to Turkey.
There is no doubt that discussions will be difficult, and agreements may not be reached in all issues. Yet the very event of the Obama visit can already be considered as a vindication of Turkey’s ambitious multilevel foreign policy. Through hard and systematic work, Turkey has been able to establish itself in the forefront of world diplomacy. The reaction of the Greek government and press, when the news about Obama’s decision to visit Turkey reached Athens was uneasy. It could become fruitful, if it sparks a long-needed discussion about a revitalisation of Greek foreign policy and a redefinition of its strategic priorities.
(Published on Athens News on 20 March 2009)
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